What is at stake at the Makerfield by-election?

There is a lot riding on the Makerfield by-election. Not just because the residents are facing a change in MP and Greater Manchester could be facing a change in mayor, but also because the outcome of the Makerfield by-election could very well have national ramifications.

As part of our by-election reporting we are offering all candidates the chance to answer ten questions about their party’s manifesto and their personal ideas, and will publish this as soon as we have received the responses.

A say in the future prime minister?

The Makerfield by-election will certainly change who represents the people of Wigan but it could change things for everyone in the UK, possibly kick-starting a Labour leadership race. Makerfield voters are not just voting for a candidate on a constituency ballot paper, they are potentially shaping who has the chance to run for Labour leader and become our next Prime Minister.

The Labour Party is in power, and likely to stay so until the next general election, widely predicted to take place in 2029. However, Sir Keir Starmer is under huge pressure to resign since the collapse of the Labour vote at the recent May elections. For the first time since 1999, Welsh Labour lost control of the Sennedd. At a local council level in England, the Labour vote similarly collapsed, just two years after they swept the board both in local elections and at the general election. Whilst in Scotland they tied for second place with Reform UK, winning only 17 seats.

Since May 7 there have been rising calls for Starmer to step aside and rumours that a leadership challenge will be triggered. Former health minister, Wes Streeting, resigned his role on 14 May citing “where we need vision, we have a vacuum”, later confirming that he would stand in any leadership contest that is initiated. There has also been much talk of Angela Rayner potentially throwing her hat into the ring and starting, or joining, a leadership challenge although this remains unconfirmed.

On this evidence, any leadership contest would involve Wes Streeting and possibly Angela Rayner. But, the same day Streeting resigned, Josh Simons announced that he would be standing down as MP in Makerfield, allowing Andy Burnham to make a bid to return to parliament. Should Andy Burnham win the Makerfield by-election and return to parliament then it would turn what is looking like a two horse race into a three horse race.

Burnham is said to have a huge amount of support not only amongst the public but crucially amongst the Labour Party and its members. So by voting Burnham (Labour), you may be able to directly influence the direction of the Labour Party and the country.

Which party do you want to represent you?

From a national point of view:

Given the mood of the public, as shown in the May elections, Labour is unlikely to call a snap election. To do so could lead to them being ousted, and it’s highly unlikely, given Starmer’s position, he will risk losing the huge majority the party has.

Therefore, Labour will remain in power, and keep the large majority they won in 2024. To vote for a party like Reform UK might give them an extra MP but it is not going to affect policy set in Westminster. A Makerfield Reform MP would be just one voice out of 650, and one of then nine Reform MPs. With Labour having a majority of over 70 MPs any Reform vote is not going to influence national policy.

But a vote in favour of Labour can bring Andy Burnham back into parliament and likely into a contest to become Prime Minister. He says he wants to change Labour – the policy and the party. So your vote is a chance to change what is happening for everyone!

From a local point of view:

Who the Makerfield MP is and what party he/she belongs to can and will affect how the local area is represented and what can be achieved for the area.

In the two years Josh Simons was Makerfield MP, he reduced the flood risk in Hindley and Abram, got the illegal tip in Bickershaw closed with a promise to have it cleared and helped with the fight against several planned or actual occurring developments (Leigh cruise ship, Hindley housing development, Winstanley Hall restoration and housing development – to name a few). Are the by-election candidates willing to fight for the area and engage with the people? If Burnham does win a Labour leadership contest then can a PM also be a good local MP?

What type of person do you want to represent you?

Now that’s a biggie. North West Bylines has been taking a close look at the candidates, so you can make an informed choice.

Reform UK candidate

Since Reform announced Robert Kenyon as their Makerfield candidate, serious concerns have been raised about his suitability to stand. In recent weeks there has been an emerging pattern involving recently elected councillors resigning, or having the Reform whip removed, following revelations about alarming social media posts. This has exposed concerning limitations in their vetting process, and some may worry Kenyon presents the same risks. Reform however has full confidence in Kenyon and his suitability for the role as Makerfield MP.

Kenyon is being presented as someone with a strong connection to the area (although he is originally from Haydock, St Helens), and to its working class communities, largely through talk about his plumbing business. But whilst he seems to have been Gas Safe registered for some time, his Makerfield business appears to have been registered only in February this year, the website and Facebook page for it were taken down again in May but subsequently a week later the website reappeared with updated privacy policy.

More worryingly, Kenyon had one X account suspended, closed his other account himself, and now has an account registered in the US. This is a common workaround, making use of a VPN, when X prevents setting up a new account from an IP address it had previously blocked.

Kenyon’s old personal Facebook account has also been deleted, and his business website and business Facebook page were taken down as well.

However, historic posts from X and other social media sites have been unearthed, leaving the Reform candidate under intense scrutiny. He has faced accusations of sexism after liking a comment about “wanting to sniff and lick a certain woman’s backside”, claiming that “women can’t drive and walk around with their fat bellies pushing a pram’’, and suggesting that “‘women lie about being raped to get an abortion”. He has also come under criticism for contributing to disinformation following the Southport killings and subsequent riots that followed, and he blamed Hilary Clinton for the manchester Arena bombings, something Reform UK commented was ‘entirely reasonable‘. On top of this he was filmed talking to Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, as he drove him around Makerfield, about apprentice salaries, seemingly unhappy at having to pay £8 an hour. It is also worth noting that as reported by The National, Kenyon had been Facebook friends with Gary Raikes, former BNP organiser and current leader of the neo-fascist group New British Union, a self-confessed revival of the British Union of Fascists.

Carol Vorderman, who herself was the subject of one of his remarks, has demanded “an apology from Rob Kenyon, to me, and to all the other people he’s abused online”.

Other candidates seem less controversial

None of the other candidates have been found to have such a controversial (to put it politely) background as the Reform candidate, and you can trust the media and other parties to have done their best to find something. Anything. But, as yet, nothing seems to have been found.

Labour Candidate: Andy Burnham, who lives just outside the constituency, knows the area and its communities well. As former MP for Leigh and more recently Greater Manchester Mayor, he has built a reputation as a politician closely connected to the concerns of ordinary residents, particularly on issues such as transport, policing and regional investment. Supporters argue that his long-standing ties to the area give him a stronger understanding of the challenges facing local people than many Westminster politicians. Burnham has also positioned himself as part of a wider push to reshape British politics, presenting himself as someone determined not only to champion Greater Manchester, but also to help drive broader change across the country and politics.

Conservatives: Michael Winstanley, a former Wigan mayor says he wants to give the Makerfield constituency ‘a credible voice’ in Parliament. Presenting himself as a candidate focused on “delivery, jobs, safer communities and common sense policies.” With Kemi Badenoch describing him as “an excellent champion of the area having lived in, worked in and represented the local community for years”.

Liberal Democrats: Jake Austin, a councillor representing Hazel Grove, Stockport, was born in Wigan and has positioned himself as a strong advocate for local communities and businesses. He wants to work on “the cost-of-living, protecting our natural environment and supporting our local high streets and businesses”.

Green Party: Sarah Wakefield, is a Manchester councillor, elected in May to Manchester City Council. She is also known for her work as a sustainable food campaigner and as director of the charity Eating Better. However, attention has turned to her online presence or sudden lack thereof after both of her X (https://x.com/sarahewakefield and https://x.com/sarah.mcr) accounts appeared to have been closed. No scandal or controversies surrounding this have broken as of the date of publication.

Restore Britain: Rebecca Shepherd lives close to the constituency and runs a horse-riding school, giving her firsthand experience of the challenges facing local families and small businesses. Campaigning on a platform focused on community issues, she says she wants to improve safety on the streets, tackle rising anti-social behaviour and help restore struggling high streets that have seen shops close and footfall decline in recent years. Drawing on her own experience as a small business owner, she says she understands the financial pressures many independent businesses are currently facing, from rising costs to declining customer confidence, and believes local communities need greater support and investment.

The Official Monster Raving Loony Party: Alan ‘Howling’ Laud Hope is standing as the party’s candidate, bringing with him decades of experience as one of Britain’s best-known novelty political figures. Not only that but Laud Hope was the first-ever elected OMRLP and is the only OMRLP politician to ever be elected. Despite having spent many years in the public eye, including as Mayor of Ashburton and the current leader of the party, no scandals or major controversies have emerged around him (a rarity in modern politics). The party itself embraces its eccentricities, describing its mission as being “to bring frivolity to dull elections”.

Rejoin EU: Peter Mark Ward, is a barrister born in the constituency. He works in Manchester and London specialising in Employment, Civil and Commercial litigation, having previously worked in government legal services. As a Pro-EU remainer turned staunch remainer, his party argues that they should “make a full contribution” to the question of rejoining.

Libertarian Party: Dan Clarke, party co-ordinator for the North-West who previously stood for the Gorton and Denton by-election and has stood in multiple other elections for the Libertarian Party and other parties, says he wants to “challenge the government, stand up for local constituents, and put personal freedom at the heart of politics”. Standing on a typically anti-establishment platform, he has positioned himself as a candidate focused on individual liberties, government accountability and opposition to what he sees as increasing political overreach.

Independent (Protect The Wild): Robert Pownall, who previously stood in the recent Scottish elections as a gannet, is standing in the Makerfield by-election as a fox. In his statement released on his Substack he said he was running as “I simply do not trust this government to deliver for animals”.

Independent: John Alfred Dyer, there is little information that can be found about Mr Dyer and as of the date of publication his statement has yet to be released. However from the information North West Bylines could find it would appear that he previously stood unsuccessfully as a candidate for Ellesmere Port and Neston in the 2015 General Election.

Independent: Paul Richard Gould, is another candidate with very little information. As of date of publication his statement has yet to be released. It appears from the information that North West Bylines can find he is registered as a director of a construction company based in Gloucestershire and was previously a director of two other companies. He has not previously run as a candidate.

Climate Party: Ed Gemmell is a councillor in Buckinghamshire and founder of the Climate Party. Campaigning on the promise to make “a stand for climate and nature”. He previously stood as a candidate in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election in 2023 and for Wycombe in the 2024 General Election.

Count Binface Party: Count Binface is a political satirical novelty candidate from Sussex created by Johnathan David Harvey. He has been active since 2018 and has previously stood in numerous other elections across England. Twice standing for London Mayor (2021 and 2024) and twice standing at a General Election (2019 and 2024). As of the date of publication no statement has been released. But if his previous statements are anything to go by we are sure it will be comical to say the least.

Whose values do you want to be seen as Makerfield’s values?

So, who do you think best represents your community best, and the values of people in Makerfield? A candidate who is a self-confessed sexist, has been criticised for circulating disinformation, has had previous social media accounts closed, and resents paying apprentices £8 an hour? Or a candidate without a history of social media controversy? Perhaps one who has held the highest public office in Greater Manchester, and might quickly become involved in a race to become the next Prime Minister? Maybe one who has long lived and worked in Makerfield? Or one who has been involved in supporting communities in the region?

This by-election is not just about choosing another name to represent Makerfield in parliament until another election comes along in 2029. The stakes are much higher. This is about which kind of politician Makerfield citizens feel represents their true values. It’s about Makerfield telling the rest of the country what kind of future it wants to see. If that’s a future of equality, truth and serious impact on the national policies that affects us all, then you know who NOT to pick.