The review so far
Five stars, three stars, one star? It certainly hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for Keir Starmer since taking office back in July last year. In fact, thanks to some policy decisions that went down like a bitter pill with voters on both the left and the right of the political spectrum, Labour is now in a fragile position. The party swept into government with a 174-seat majority yet the sunshine-filled day that welcomed Starmer into No.10 was soon replaced by an unpleasant winter of discontent. It was as if the seasons themselves reflected the fortunes of Labour.
Now, the voters of one constituency in North West England are set to give their verdict on this still relatively new government, providing a first review of the last eight months and perhaps a foreshadowing of things to come.
The trigger
It was for a substantial reason that the former Labour MP of Runcorn and Helsby announced his intention to stand down. Mike Amesbury was recently convicted of assault and handed a 10-week prison sentence which was then suspended after an appeal just a few days later. He was disowned by his former party and faced incredible pressure to resign from parliament, with a recall petition very likely in the offing. His position had become untenable, and it would no doubt have been very surprising had he managed to cling on to his seat. Now, a by-election will take place and voters in Runcorn and Helsby will go to the polls to choose his successor.
The test
Keir Starmer is set to face his first parliamentary by-election as prime minister. It is a test that many believe will show just where the Labour Party stands now in the view of the public, and his party’s performance may well foreshadow things to come, even more so given the election is happening in a ‘safe’ seat. In their death throes in government, the Conservatives lost many ‘safe’ seats to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The subsequent general election saw seats in which their MPs held huge majorities fall to Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Reform UK. Now it is Labour’s turn to be put to the test in a safe seat on the back of a troubled start in government. The question is, will this be like most by-elections early in the parliament, where the party of government is voted out merely as a protest, or will the result spell real trouble for the Prime Minister?
It will also be a test for Reform UK, to see if they are truly rising in popularity as the opinion polls seem to suggest. Will whatever momentum they have see them make significant progress in a seat where they came a distant second in the general election? Will they actually manage to take the seat from Labour, giving Nigel Farage’s claims of being the next official opposition some vindication? Or will they fall flat as internal rows tear them apart and threaten to remove them from the mainstream thanks to their self-destructive behaviour?
The review
The inevitable by-election will not just be a test for Starmer, however. It will also be a review. A review from the voters of Runcorn and Helsby of the Labour government’s first months in office. With Keir Starmer delivering on his promise to be unpopular, the country will get to see first-hand just how unpopular his tactics have been with the electorate. Will Runcorn and Helsby give the Prime Minister a glowing five-star review by electing a Labour MP with a nice, comfortable majority? Or perhaps a lukewarm three-star review by electing a Labour MP by the skin of their teeth? Maybe they will slap Starmer with an unceremonious one-star review by blocking Amesbury’s successor Labour candidate and electing an opposition party’s candidate to Westminster instead, with Reform UK being the most likely party of choice.
Should a one-star review happen in Runcorn and Helsby, it will likely send reverberations through the government and wider Labour Party, even if it’s not received with surprise by the rest of the country. In that scenario, Keir Starmer will have a lot of serious and fast thinking to do as the nation revolts against the cuts and continued austerity, even if they do so by electing an even worse catalyst for such things.
This will be the first time in the new 2024 – 2029 parliament that voters will be going to the polls in a by-election. It will be a test for both government and opposition parties alike and will be a chance for voters to give their feedback on how the government is doing. However, it will also be a chance for the government to listen. For whatever the review reveals, the voters of Runcorn and Helsby will have spoken, and there will be lessons for the government to learn.
