From election victory in November 2024 to now struggling to control the political narrative, what has gone wrong for Donald Trump over the past twelve months and is there any chance of him rescuing the situation? Dominic Jackson investigates.
Trump’s presidential election victory in November 2024 was sweeping and unexpected. He won all the swing states to become president which resulted in a commanding victory in the electoral college. Despite an organised campaign against him and dire warnings from US activists who feared what ‘Project 2025’ might mean if Trump won, Trump’s campaign messaging about the price of eggs won the day. But a year later the Democrats have made large gains in elections for state governors and New York mayor. Why have the US electorate soured on Trump to such an extent? In Part 1 we look at his first 10 months in office and in Part 2 review how the recent November election results may show a different way forward.
Part 1: it’s only been 10 months (but it feels like a lifetime)
Trump’s abuses of power
Almost as soon as he settled back into the Oval Office, Trump began issuing executive orders such as revoking birthright citizenship (the provision of the Constitution that automatically grants US citizenship to anyone born in the US). Trump also targeted law firms that had acted against him during the Biden administration’s attempts to hold him criminally accountable for both the 6 January 2021 riots and taking classified documents to his Mar-a-Lago Florida residence without permission. A number of these executive orders were challenged and have been struck down by US courts as illegal. Trump introduced legislation including the notorious ‘Big Beautiful Bill‘ which gave tax cuts to the wealthy whilst increasing the US budget deficit and borrowing requirements.
Trump has, so far, been able to get away with his actions because of the vice-like grip he holds over the Republican Party. Republican lawmakers have (so far) been afraid to defy him for fear of facing primary challenges for their seats when up for re-election. Trump has also benefitted from a very favourable Supreme Court which has often ruled in his favour on the ‘shadow docket’. This practice has been heavily criticised, not least because the shadow docket does not explain the Court’s reasoning and provides no guidance to lower courts.
File it under fear
Yet in November 2025, a sudden change in the political winds is detectable in the US. Whilst some of this can be ascribed to the Republicans’ heavy losses in the elections of that month, Trump has a more serious political problem which he seems unable to shake off. That fear is Jeffrey Epstein, Trump’s past associations with Epstein, how close these associations were, what documentary evidence there might be of Epstein’s past conduct and what, if anything, Trump knew of Epstein’s sordid lifestyle. The US government investigation into Epstein, and the evidence it collected, is known as ‘The Epstein Files’. Trump has recently been highly reluctant to release the Epstein Files (although during the run-up to the 2024 presidential election he claimed to be in favour), even though as they are federal government documents it would be entirely within his power to do so, suggesting fear of what they contain and the implications of them becoming public.
Jeffrey Epstein was a US financier who, with accomplices including Ghislaine Maxwell, operated a syndicate which committed unspeakable crimes against underage girls and women. Epstein was finally arrested on July 6, 2019, but committed suicide in prison on 10 August 2019 before he could face trial. Questions remain about why and how Epstein was able to escape justice for so long (the alleged crimes date to between 2002 and 2005) with accusations that other powerful men conspired to shield him. US Attorney General Pam Bondi claimed in February 2025 to have all of the Epstein Files on her desk. She later denied this but the suggestion that a cover-up was in place was sufficient to spur some Representatives in the US Congress, encouraged by devoted Trump supporters such as Joe Rogan, to force release of the files. Emails subpoenaed by Congress from the Epstein estate were highly damaging to Trump, with Epstein describing him in one as ‘the dog that hasn’t barked’. For many this strongly suggested that Trump was aware of Epstein’s crimes, although the exact meaning is not clear. Trump maintains he severed all contact with Epstein before his first conviction, and the president has always denied prior knowledge of any wrongdoing on Epstein’s part.
Shutdown
One aspect of US politics that is somewhat perplexing to outsiders is the need for Congress to continually re-authorise US federal government spending in advance of each fiscal year. Should political machinations intervene, a ‘lapse in appropriations’, more commonly referred to as a government shutdown, occurs. One such shutdown occurred in September 2025, yet a political implication of this was beneficial to Trump and the suspicion remains that he pressured Congressional Republicans to deliberately avoid compromise with the Democrats.
Following the repeated refusal of House Speaker Mike Johnson (a staunch Trump ally) to table a debate on a Bill to compel release of the Epstein Files , Congressional Democrats supported by four Republicans tabled a ‘discharge petition’ in the House of Representatives to force such a debate. This procedure to circumvent control of the debating schedule is similar to that which UK MPs used in 2019 to prevent Boris Johnson forcing through a “no deal” Brexit. The discharge petition would have required 218 votes to succeed. The Republicans held a 219-213 majority in the House immediately before the shutdown, with a pending special election (by election) in Arizona. This election was won by Adelita Grijalva (Democrat) yet Johnson refused to swear her in following her victory citing the ‘shutdown’ as his reason. That Grijalva had been explicit that she would be the 218th (and casting) signature on the discharge petition, following through on her earlier promise as soon as the federal government (and Congress) reopened, caused intense distrust of Johnson’s actions. The shutdown was ultimately ended after 40 days by eight Senate Democrats voting with Senate Republicans, much to the irritation of grassroots Democrat activists who felt they were winning the battle for public opinion over the shutdown.
Post-discharge petition
With Grijalva’s vote together with the four dissident Republicans who Trump unsuccessfully tried to persuade to revoke their petition signatures, the discharge petition passed and Johnson announced a timetable for the legislation. House Republicans began to find themselves in an impossible situation. Rep Thomas Massie (Republican, Kentucky) warned his Republican colleagues that a vote against releasing the files would tar their reputations for years – long after Trump has left the political scene. Amidst warnings that up to 100 Republicans may vote in favour of releasing the files, Trump abruptly changed his stance and urged a vote in favour of release – albeit carefully worded to provide excuses to ultimately not release the files (he urged “House Republicans [to] vote to release the Epstein Files” but said nothing about Senate Republicans for example). Why, if he now supported releasing the files, would he not just tell Bondi to release them? If, as Trump claims, the Epstein Files are a “Democrat hoax”, why not release them to prove his point? Trump campaigned for the Presidency in 2024 partly on a platform of releasing the Epstein files. The Biden administration was unable to release the files before it left office as Ghislaine Maxwell’s trial for sex trafficking and her (unsuccessful) appeal together with a further unsuccessful appeal to the US Supreme Court were not finally concluded until October 2025.
The vote in the House to compel release of the files ultimately passed by 427 votes to one (the lone dissenter being Republican Clay Higgins) and thus duly passed to the Senate (since both Houses of the US Congress have to agree on the text of a Bill before it can be sent to the President to sign into law). Johnson made noises after the House vote strongly suggesting he would be working with Senate Republicans to amend the Bill, meaning it would have to be sent back to the House to consider the amendments and then back to the Senate, thus conveniently adding further delay. However much to Johnson’s evident disappointment, the Senate passed the Bill by “unanimous consent” with the margins in both Chambers easily exceeding the two thirds majority necessary to prevent a Presidential veto. Reflecting on the vote during his regular MS NOW show The Last Word, US commentator Lawrence O’Donnell speculated that Senate Republican majority leader John Thune had betrayed both Johnson and by implication Trump.
The Epstein Files saga demonstrates one aspect of how and why Trump is losing control of the Republican Party and thereby his grip on absolute power. Being forced to choose between ‘voting the wrong way’ (in Massie’s words, i.e. covering up a paedophile ring) or openly defying Trump’s authority has caused some Republicans to begin to contemplate post-Trump politics. Ultimately it has been one test of loyalty too far, yet it’s not the only reason Trump’s authority is fading.
In Part 2 we look at what the future may hold for a Trump presidency.
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